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DISCOVER THE UCL KNOCKOUT BRACKET: WHO ARSENAL AND LIVERPOOL ARE LIKELY TO FACE
Chaos looms as 18 matches decide the UCL Round of 16. Projections for Newcastle, Chelsea, and Tottenham’s big night.
The Champions League table is hanging by a thread, and Wednesday night promises chaos. Every team—36 in total—has just one game left to play before the knockout rounds come into focus.
All 18 matches start at 8pm sharp on Wednesday. Six Premier League clubs are still in the mix, and five of them are sitting pretty in the top eight.
If you finish in the top eight, you get seeded and go straight to the round of 16. Land anywhere from ninth to 24th, though, and you have to slog through a two-legged play-off. Arsenal are basically locked in at the top thanks to their insane goal difference. Liverpool and Tottenham just need to handle their business—beat Qarabag and Eintracht Frankfurt—and they’re through.
Newcastle, Chelsea, and Manchester City still have work to do. And because of the new Champions League draw, we already have a decent idea who each team might face—even though everything could change on the night.
Right now, Man City are 11th, making them the only English side not automatically through. Our projections have them facing either Monaco or PSV in the play-off.
If City win that, their reward is a tie with either Spurs or PSG in the last 16. Not exactly a walk in the park.
Spurs, if they avoid City, look set to play Monaco, PSV, or Atletico Madrid in their opener.
Arsenal’s reward for topping the group? A last-16 showdown with one of Galatasaray, Qarabag, Juventus, or Borussia Dortmund.
Liverpool, sitting fourth, is on track to meet Atalanta, Inter Milan, Marseille, or Bayer Leverkusen.
Newcastle, currently seventh, could run into Barcelona if they keep their spot. Other possible opponents: Sporting CP, Athletic Club, or Olympiacos.
Chelsea are eighth, so they’re pulling from the same pool as Newcastle.
The way the draw pans out, Arsenal could meet Newcastle or Chelsea in the quarters. You might even get an all-English quarter-final. Or Barcelona could be waiting.
Liverpool—six-time champs—could end up facing Man City or Spurs in the quarter-finals, or maybe PSG or Atletico. Nothing’s set in stone, but with just one game left for everyone, the table could flip fast.
Arsenal looks locked into second overall. Liverpool probably can’t get higher than third, thanks to goal difference.
Tottenham’s best hope is third. Newcastle and Chelsea have to avoid losing—Newcastle at PSG, Chelsea at Napoli—to stay in the top eight. City needs to beat Galatasaray at home and hope a few results go their way.
One last twist: topping the league phase didn’t help Liverpool last season—they got PSG in the last 16 and bowed out early. But this time, if Arsenal finish top, they’ll get home advantage in the second leg of every knockout tie. That could make all the difference.
LEAGUE UPDATE: MAN UNITED’S CHAMPIONS LEAGUE HOPES BOOSTED BY COEFFICIENT POINTS SURGE
Manchester United move into fourth place as England's dominant UEFA coefficient makes a fifth Champions League spot almost certain.
Manchester United just got a real shot in the arm for their Champions League hopes this season. After knocking off Manchester City and Arsenal in back-to-back games, they’ve climbed into fourth place in the Premier League. It’s been a struggle for United to make the Champions League in recent years—their last run was in the 2023/24 season.
These days, finishing in the top four isn’t always enough for Premier League teams. UEFA now hands out extra spots, and it all depends on how clubs from each country perform across the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League.
So, how does it work? UEFA takes each league’s overall coefficient score—basically, a measure of how well their teams do in Europe—and divides it by the number of clubs they have in these competitions.
This season, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Newcastle all joined the European fight. Out of those six, only Newcastle had to go through the play-offs; the rest sailed straight into the knockouts.
Now that the Champions League group stage is done, you can really see which countries are in line for those bonus spots next year. Right now, England is out in front with 180,625 points. Germany follows with 107,000. Portugal sits in third with 14,700, and Spain is just behind on 14,375.
Here’s the key thing: the two countries whose teams rack up the best results across all three competitions this season each get a European Performance Spot—an extra Champions League place.
With England leading the pack, even a fifth-place finish in the Premier League could send United back into the Champions League instead of the Europa League. Newcastle took advantage of this last season.
If United hold onto fourth, they’re in. But there’s still a lot of football left. Interim boss Michael Carrick isn’t letting anyone get ahead of themselves—he’s already told his players to stay sharp.
Next up, United face Fulham at Old Trafford. They'll be chasing a third straight win and looking to keep Carrick’s perfect record going since he stepped in for Darren Fletcher.
JUST IN: PEP GUARDIOLA THANKS JOSE MOURINHO AFTER WILD NIGHT OF EUROPEAN DRAMA
Pep Guardiola thanks Jose Mourinho as Benfica’s last-gasp winner against Real Madrid sends City straight into the Last-16.
Pep Guardiola had a smile on his face and a message for Jose Mourinho after his old rival did him a huge favour, helping Manchester City sneak into the Champions League knockout rounds.
City took care of their own business, beating Galatasaray 2-0 at the Etihad. Haaland and Cherki got the goals, but the real drama was happening elsewhere. City’s spot in the last eight still hung in the balance because Real Madrid needed to equalise against Benfica. If they had, Guardiola’s squad would have been bumped into the play-offs instead.
That’s when Benfica’s goalkeeper, Anatoliy Trubin, pulled off something wild. He left his box, charged forward for a late free kick, and scored a brilliant goal. Benfica won 4-2. That goal kept Benfica alive in the competition—and, as it turned out, saved City too.
Guardiola admitted he and his players were glued to the screen in the dressing room, completely confused when they saw Trubin running up for that last free kick. “We were all in there, watching, and none of us realised Benfica still needed a goal to qualify,” Guardiola said. “So when their keeper went up, we’re all thinking, ‘What are you doing?’ But Jose knew. It was a smart move. Finishing in the top eight, with how tough the Champions League has become, feels really good for us. Now we can focus on being at our best by March.”
Bernardo Silva didn’t hide how relieved he felt. Skipping those extra play-off games really matters, especially when you’re chasing a quadruple. “A bit of drama, but we did it. We’re very happy because we avoid two more matches,” he said. “With all the injuries we’ve got and the crazy schedule, having those two weeks free to rest, get players back, and focus on the other competitions is huge for us.”
As for Mourinho, he looked proud after Benfica’s wild finish. He’s won this tournament twice before, and he believed his side deserved to stay in. “That was a fantastic goal, a historic moment—almost blew the roof off the stadium,” Mourinho said. “Honestly, for Benfica to beat Real Madrid, that’s massive.”
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