Alvaro Arbeloa is about to step into his first European match as a manager on Tuesday night, with Real Madrid hosting AS Monaco at 21:00 CEST. It’s the second-to-last game in the group, and things are tight. Real Madrid sits in seventh place right now—just three points off second, but also only three ahead of Monaco, who is down in 19th and fighting to keep their Champions League hopes alive.

Arbeloa has a headache when it comes to his squad list. Alvaro Carreras joins Eder Militao, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy, and Brahim Diaz on the list of players missing through suspension. Brahim’s still on his way back from the African Cup of Nations. Monaco’s boss, Sebastien Pocognoli, has his own problems: Lamine Camara and Krepin Diatta are away at AFCON, and Takumi Minamino, Lukas Hradecky, Paul Pogba, Mohammed Salisu, and Christian Mawissa are all injured.

Looks like Arda Guler is set to start for Real Madrid. Both Diario AS and Marca say his spark off the bench against Levante earned him a spot in the midfield, likely taking Eduardo Camavinga’s place. Fran Garcia should fill in for Carreras. The only real question is about Gonzalo Garcia—Marca thinks Franco Mastantuono will take his spot, but AS says Gonzalo stays.

As for Monaco, expect Alexander Golovin and Folarin Balogun to lead the line, with Magnes Akliouche causing trouble on the right. Ansu Fati, on loan from Barcelona, is probably starting too.

Monaco really needs to turn things around. They’ve lost four in a row in Ligue 1, including a 3-1 defeat to Lorient last time out. Real Madrid have had their own drama after losing to Albacete last week, but they got within a point of Barcelona over the weekend. A win against Monaco could flip the mood in Madrid and give the Bernabeu something to cheer about.

Hansi Flick just can’t catch a break. Right before Barcelona’s must-win Champions League trip to Slavia Prague, Ferran Torres picked up a hamstring injury. He’s out for the next 10 days. So, add him to the list with Lamine Yamal, who’s suspended. Suddenly, Barcelona look pretty thin up front. There’s some good news, though—Raphinha is back and ready to go, which gives the squad a much-needed lift as they scramble for a top-eight finish and try to avoid that dreaded play-off round.

Torres drops out at the worst possible time. He’s been dealing with a muscle issue in his right leg, so he won’t just miss the trip to the Czech Republic—he’s probably out for the weekend’s La Liga match too. Flick’s been trying to rotate his squad with games coming thick and fast, and Ferran’s been a real asset—sometimes starting, sometimes injecting energy off the bench. Now that flexibility is gone, and just as the Champions League heats up. Ferran, nicknamed “The Shark” by fans, will stay behind in Barcelona for physio while his teammates head off to Prague.

As if that wasn’t enough, Barcelona also have to make do without Lamine Yamal, who’s serving a one-match ban after picking up too many yellows. The kid’s been electric—one of the brightest young talents in the game and a real focal point in Flick’s attack. Replacing him isn’t easy, and with Ferran out too, Flick is really down to the bare bones in attack. The injury list doesn’t stop there either. Gavi and Andreas Christensen are still out long-term, so they were never in the running for this game. Flick pretty much has to lean on his senior players and hope some of the younger guys from La Masia can step up in a tough away match.

But Raphinha’s return comes at just the right moment. He missed the last match with a minor knock, and there were some worries he’d be out longer. But he’s trained fine and made the squad for Prague. That’s a big boost. He’ll likely slot right back into the starting lineup, probably out wide, looking to supply Robert Lewandowski. The squad looks strong enough on paper—Raphinha, Lewandowski, and Marcus Rashford are all travelling. Rashford, especially, will need to step up with Yamal out. There’s also some young blood in there, like Roony Bardghji and Marc Bernal, in case Flick needs an extra spark off the bench.

This match couldn’t be bigger. With the new Champions League format, you’ve got to finish in the top eight to skip that tricky play-off round in February. Barcelona are 15th right now, with 10 points, but they’ve still got a shot to climb up in these last two games. Flick called the match “crucial”—and he’s right. They can’t afford to drop points. Slavia Prague’s stadium is a tough place to go, and the home crowd will be all over them. The pressure’s on Raphinha and Lewandowski to deliver, and Barcelona just have to find a way to get the job done in Prague—no matter who’s missing.