ARSENAL’S WIN PROBABILITY DROPS TO 73% FOLLOWING STINGING LOSS AT THE ETIHAD STADIUM
Manchester City beat Arsenal 2-1! Discover how the Opta Supercomputer views the Premier League title race now.
Manchester City edged past Arsenal in a crucial Premier League clash on Sunday, keeping their title hopes alive with only a few matches left this season.
City opened the scoring about 15 minutes in, thanks to a fantastic solo effort by Rayan Cherki. Arsenal quickly answered, though, as Kai Havertz capitalised on a mistake by Gianluigi Donnarumma to level the score barely two minutes later.
Erling Haaland then delivered what would become the winning goal midway through the second half, as City pressed hard to close the gap in the title race.
Many have viewed this result as a major blow to Arsenal’s quest for the title, suggesting Manchester City now holds all the momentum while Arsenal might be faltering.
Yet, the data tells a slightly different story. According to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal remain the favourites to take the league crown, even if City's odds have improved.
Before kickoff, Arsenal was the clear frontrunner in the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations, winning the title in 85.2% of scenarios. City took the remaining 14.8%.
After the game, Arsenal's chances dropped, but they still sit fairly strong at 73%.
Here’s why that number might still seem surprisingly high: Arsenal hold a three-point advantage, and though City has a game in hand, that match and the others after it need to be won, which is far from guaranteed in this league.
Even if City triumphs in those, Arsenal can still match those results. Then, it might all come down to goal difference.
The season is far from decided. There’s enough time and plenty of football ahead for the standings to shift dramatically. Both teams face tricky fixtures, with potential stumbling blocks still on the horizon.
Notably, the Opta Power Rankings suggest Arsenal’s remaining schedule is somewhat less daunting. While the home game against Newcastle could be tricky, their last five opponents currently sit in the bottom half of the table.
City, on the other hand, must face Everton, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa, all competing fiercely for European spots next season.
If both sides win all their remaining matches, Arsenal may have better opportunities to rack up goals and boost their goal difference, which could be decisive in this tight race.
Of course, the league rarely follows a smooth path. Slips in supposedly straightforward games remain a real possibility, promising plenty more twists as the title race unfolds.
LIVERPOOL TARGET EMILIANO MARTINEZ AS JUVENTUS CLOSE IN ON LEGEND ALISSON BECKER
Discover why FSG are targeting Emi Martinez to replace Alisson, as Villa face pressure to sell their highest-earning players.
There’s growing talk about Liverpool potentially moving for Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martinez as they weigh up options if Alisson Becker leaves for Juventus this summer, according to TEAMtalk.
Alisson has been a rock for Liverpool since they paid a hefty fee to sign him from Roma in 2018. Over eight seasons, he’s helped secure six major trophies, including two Premier League titles and the Champions League, earning a reputation as one of the club’s best-ever goalkeepers.
But with his contract expiring in just over a year, it seems likely he might leave for a new challenge abroad. Sources suggest Juventus are confident about signing him this summer and has also been targeting other Premier League players.
This potential departure has pushed Liverpool’s owners, FSG, to explore the goalkeeper market carefully and consider strong replacements for such a key position.
Sources confirm that Martinez is once again drawing significant transfer interest ahead of the window. Aston Villa, meanwhile, are under pressure to balance their books and have Martinez, one of their highest earners with a contract until 2029, firmly on their minds.
Villa has begun looking into possible replacements too, making enquiries about several goalkeepers, including Manchester City’s James Trafford.
Martinez’s situation is catching attention across Europe, and Liverpool is among the clubs aware he could be available.
Within Liverpool’s recruitment team, Martinez is highly regarded and seen as a serious candidate should Alisson depart. Juventus has offered Alisson an attractive long-term contract, something Liverpool could match, but apparently are hesitant to do so at this point.
Discussions between Alisson and Juventus have reportedly progressed well, with the player keen to test himself in Serie A. This uncertainty has made Liverpool carefully consider their next steps in goal.
While youngster Giorgi Mamardashvili is promising, there’s still some doubt about whether he’s ready to immediately take on the number one role at a club chasing top honours every season.
That has led Liverpool to broaden its search and look at more experienced options. Martinez stands out for his leadership, mentality, and top-level experience, qualities Liverpool values highly, given his recent performances for both Villa and Argentina.
His reputation as a commanding figure and elite shot-stopper also makes him attractive to those handling Liverpool’s recruitment.
Aston Villa aren’t pushing Martinez out aggressively, but they acknowledge a significant offer could force serious talks this summer. With financial realities to face, tough decisions might be on the horizon for the Midlands club.
Liverpool’s manager, Arne Slot, has hinted at a possible “changing of the guard” regarding Alisson this summer, noting that all transfers are carefully considered with the club’s best interests in mind.
He mentioned experience is a factor in keeping players like Alisson, but ultimately it will be the club’s decision, especially with just one year left on the current deal.
While StadiumNest sources say the Juventus move is gaining serious momentum, some journalists believe selling Alisson could turn out to be a major mistake for Liverpool.
At the same time, there’s a growing unease within Liverpool about whether letting Caoimhin Kelleher go last summer was a misstep, which now adds to their uncertainty over goalkeeping options going forward.
ALAN SHEARER SLAMS VAR INCONSISTENCY AFTER ARSENAL SCRAPE PAST WEST HAM IN LONDON
Discover why Alan Shearer and Gary Lineker are questioning VAR consistency following Callum Wilson’s disallowed goal in London.
Alan Shearer didn’t hold back after Arsenal’s tense 1-0 win over West Ham, blasting what he sees as the Premier League’s inconsistent officiating.
West Ham, desperate for points at the bottom of the table, thought they’d snatched a late equaliser when Callum Wilson scored in stoppage time. But VAR caught a foul; Pablo was judged to have collided with Arsenal’s keeper David Raya, and the goal got chalked off. The review dragged on, too, with VAR official Darren England studying the replays for more than four minutes before telling referee Chris Kavanagh to check the monitor himself.
Shearer, chatting with Gary Lineker and Micah Richards on The Rest is Football podcast, admitted the officials probably got it right in the end. Still, he said, VAR hasn’t fixed the bigger problem: referees can’t seem to make consistent calls.
“Some people think that’s a foul; some don’t,” Shearer said. “But where’s the consistency? Every week we’re seeing almost identical incidents.”
He pointed to another recent VAR call last week at Everton; Bernardo Silva drew a holding foul, but Merlin Rohl barely got a second look from the officials. “Where was VAR then?” Shearer asked.
The frustration goes beyond just the players and coaches. “Fans will show you screenshots of similar moments, and sometimes it’s a foul; sometimes it’s nothing. That’s why people are upset.”
West Ham walk away empty-handed, missing out on what could’ve been a crucial point in their relegation battle. Arsenal, meanwhile, hang on at the top, still five clear of Manchester City.
Gary Lineker added his two cents: “Probably a foul, but this isn’t how it’s supposed to work. If I were a West Ham or Man City fan, I’d be angry too. There were all kinds of grappling at that corner, Arsenal players grabbing West Ham attackers everywhere. Sure, keepers get special protection, and maybe it was a foul. But what about everything else going on in the box?”
Wayne Rooney, though, gave the officials some rare credit on his own show. “Clear foul in my book. You can see the arm hit Raya’s face, and he can’t reach the ball. VAR actually did its job in a big moment.”