Neymar just turned 34 on Thursday. Wild, right? For a guy so often seen as the eternal teenager, that number sneaks up on you.

But for Neymar himself, there’s a number that feels even heavier: the World Cup is only 18 weeks away. That’s about 15 weeks for him to prove to coach Carlo Ancelotti that he belongs in Brazil’s squad. The clock’s ticking, and Neymar basically has to start from zero.

Winning the World Cup is the last big thing left on Neymar’s wish list. He’s had a long, colourful, and – yeah – sometimes messy career. For some, this is his shot at redemption.

Seems a bit rough to judge Brazil’s all-time top scorer like he’s missing something. The guy’s won both the Champions League and the Copa Libertadores. He’s given fans all kinds of jaw-dropping moments. Still, for a lot of people—and maybe in the back of his own mind—he hasn’t quite lived up to all the hype.

You have to remember the bar was set sky-high. Way back, more than 15 years ago, Neymar kicked off a career that people decided would be a failure unless he won both a Ballon d’Or and a World Cup. The Ballon d’Or? That ship’s probably sailed. The World Cup? He’s still holding on, hoping to put on a show in North America this summer. That dream has kept him going through endless hours of physio and brutal training since he wrecked his knee playing for Brazil last October.

And yet, nearly two and a half years later, there’s no solid proof he’s back to full strength. Going back to Santos last year just led to more frustration.

Some say he pushed himself too hard, too soon, chasing a national team comeback last March, and it cost him. One injury just led to another. He never really found any rhythm. Sure, he can still nail a free kick and pick out a killer pass. But can he shake a defender and turn a big match? If he can, he’s been saving it for 2026.

There was a glimmer of hope at the end of the 2025 league season. Neymar put off minor knee surgery to try to save Santos from relegation in their last three games. But the opponents? Two teams are already relegated, and one is playing the reserves. That’s a world away from the chaos of a World Cup.

Since then, it’s been all about shaking off surgery and getting back in shape. Now he’s in full training. The comeback’s getting close.

And, honestly, a shift in Brazil’s soccer calendar might be working in his favour.

Brazil’s always been tricky to organise, with its massive size and wild regional differences. For ages, soccer here was local—every one of the country’s 27 states had its own championship. But as the national league grew (it only really got going in 1971), these state competitions faded. Thirty years back, they took up half the year. Lately, they’re just a few months at the start, and the national league kicks off in early April.

If that was still the setup, Neymar would have it even tougher. Ancelotti, as smooth as ever, makes a point of paying attention to Brazilian soccer at home, but let’s be real—he probably doesn’t care much about the state championships. He’s said straight up that Neymar’s shot at the national team depends on what he does in the national league. Luckily, this year the league started way earlier than usual.

The big kickoff was January 28th. For now, the national league runs midweek, while weekends are for a shortened state tournament. So Neymar gets to prove himself in real games against real opponents right from the start.

People hoped Neymar might come back on Wednesday, just before his birthday, in a home match against São Paulo. Didn’t happen. They decided not to risk him and will wait until the weekend. The problem with these quick state championships is that if a club starts slow, it can end up dangerously close to regional relegation. Santos, winless in seven games, is in that exact spot. They’re hoping Neymar can bail them out against some weaker upstate teams.

The real fight is in the Brazilian league. Next Thursday, Santos heads south to face Athletico Paranaense in the third round. Neymar might skip this one. Athletico’s stadium has a synthetic pitch—Neymar’s been pretty vocal about disliking those and sees them as a risk for injuries. After that, there’s the post-Carnaval match at home against Vasco da Gama. That’s the same fixture where, last year, Neymar had to be carried off the field, devastated after a brutal 6-0 loss. Honestly, it’d be the perfect place for a statement comeback.

He doesn’t have time to ease back in. The clock’s ticking, and Ancelotti’s not making it easy. Neymar actually has to earn his spot in Brazil’s squad. The veteran Italian coach gets asked about Neymar all the time, and he’s been pretty blunt about what it’ll take. No more space for luxury players. If you can only manage 15 or 20 minutes, forget about it.

“Modern football isn’t just about talent,” Ancelotti said last year. “You need fitness and intensity, too. If Neymar deserves a spot—if he’s playing well and he’s better than the others—he’ll be at the World Cup. But only if he’s at 100%, not 80%.”

If Neymar does get back to his best, where would he actually play? Ancelotti breaks down his attack into three types. First, you’ve got wingers—Neymar’s not in that group.

“I think he has to play centrally,” Ancelotti said. “Not on the wing. In modern football, wingers have to help out defensively.”

Then there are the classic No. 9 centre-forwards—Richarlison, Igor Jesus, and Pedro from Flamengo. That’s not Neymar’s style, either.

So that leaves the false 9, or what Ancelotti sees as this mix between a No. 9 and a No. 10. Someone who drops deeper, links up play, and creates for others. Raphinha from Barcelona could slot in there. Ancelotti really rates Matheus Cunha—he’s used him the most since taking over. And Chelsea’s João Pedro is right in the mix, too.

The competition’s fierce—and it’s only getting tougher. Neymar might end up fighting for his place against Endrick, Real Madrid’s young striker who’s already lighting it up on loan at Lyon.

Endrick’s just 19. He’s got all the time in the world. Neymar? He’s 34. If there’s ever a moment for one last World Cup run, it’s now.