THREE-WAY FIGHT: MAX VERSTAPPEN MUST WIN, OSCAR PIASTRI NEEDS BIG LANDO NORRIS DROP
F1 goes down to the wire! Norris leads Verstappen by 12 points. Analysis of what Norris (podium = win), Verstappen (must win), and Piastri (top two finish) need in Abu Dhabi.
The Qatar Grand Prix really mixed things up; now the 2025 world championship is a three-way fight.
After Max Verstappen's unexpected seventh win this season, he, Lando Norris of McLaren, and Oscar Piastri could all win the title at the Abu Dhabi finale next weekend.
Norris is in the lead with 408 points, 12 points ahead of Verstappen, and Piastri is 16 points behind his teammate.
With 25 points at stake in Abu Dhabi, what does each driver need to do to become an F1 world champion?
Norris's Path to Victory
Even though he had a disappointing fourth-place finish in Qatar, Norris is still in the best spot to win the title and his first world championship.
Basically, if Norris gets on the podium, he'll be the 11th world champion from Britain, no matter where the others end up.
If Norris finishes fourth, he wins the championship if Verstappen doesn't win. He also wins if he finishes within 12 points of Verstappen and 16 of Piastri.
If there's a tie, Norris wins because he can't be beaten in any tie-breaker.
The top three drivers each have seven wins this season, so the championship will be decided by who has the most second-place finishes. Norris has eight, Verstappen has five, and Piastri has four, so Norris would win.
Verstappen's Path to Victory
For Verstappen to win the title, he needs to win in Abu Dhabi and have Norris finish fourth or lower.
Even if he doesn't win, Verstappen needs to score at least 13 points more than Norris and not lose more than five points to Piastri to win his fifth world championship.
This year is the first since 2010 where more than two drivers are in contention for the world championship at the final race.
Back in 2010, Sebastian Vettel was the last driver to win the championship after not leading going into the final race.
Vettel was third heading to Abu Dhabi but overcame a 15-point deficit to win his first of four titles in a row.
Verstappen might look to Vettel for motivation as he tries to pull off an epic title comeback.
Piastri's Path to Victory
Piastri might be a bit down after McLaren missed out on a likely win in Qatar.
The Aussie needs to finish in the top two to have any shot at winning his first F1 world championship.
Even if he wins, Piastri needs his teammate Norris to finish sixth or lower. If Piastri finishes second, Norris needs to finish 10th or lower, and Verstappen can't finish higher than fourth.
That last situation would mean someone else, like a Mercedes or Ferrari driver, would need to win.
DISCOVER WHY JONATHAN WHEATLEY BELIEVES RED BULL’S STRUGGLES FUEL MAX VERSTAPPEN’S OUTRAGE
Jonathan Wheatley claims Max Verstappen's criticism of the "anti-racing" 2026 regulations reflects Red Bull's early struggles.
Jonathan Wheatley thinks Max Verstappen’s harsh words about Formula 1’s 2026 rules say as much about Red Bull’s current struggles as they do about the new regulations.
Verstappen hasn’t held back at all; he’s been one of the loudest voices against F1’s new energy-harvesting era, calling the rules “anti-racing” during pre-season testing.
Just two races in, Verstappen’s only got eight points. After Shanghai, he walked away without scoring anything. He finished the sprint race in ninth just outside the points, mostly because he lost ground when his car bogged down from a lack of battery power right off the line.
Things didn’t get better in the main race. Verstappen tried to claw his way back, but he had to park his RB22 because of an ERS cooling problem.
He didn’t sugarcoat his feelings. Verstappen slammed the new energy management rules, energy harvesting, and super clipping, all of it, as “fundamentally flawed". He called the racing itself a "joke". For him, the whole thing’s starting to feel more like Mario Kart than real racing.
“I swapped the simulator for my Nintendo Switch and have been practising Mario Kart, actually!” Verstappen joked when someone asked if sim time gives drivers an advantage now. “Honestly, I’m getting good at finding the mushrooms. The blue shell’s a bit tougher, but I’m working on it. No rockets yet, but they’re coming.”
He also warned F1’s leaders that these new rules could “eventually ruin the sport; it’ll come back to bite them.”
Not everyone’s moved by Verstappen’s complaints. Juan Pablo Montoya went as far as telling him, "There's the door.” Guenther Steiner, the former Haas boss, said it came off as nothing more than “toys out of the pram when it doesn’t go his way.”
Meanwhile, things look very different for Charles Leclerc. He’s been fighting for podiums in Australia and China and is loving the new era.
“I really enjoyed it,” Leclerc said. “Yeah, sometimes the overtakes feel a little fake if someone messes up their battery management; you get this huge speed difference. But we’re all learning when to push and when to risk it, and that’s creating some great overtaking spots. Today was a perfect example.”
Wheatley, watching all this, figures opinions on the new rules depend on how well one's doing. If you ask the guys up front, Ferrari and Mercedes, they love the new racing. The teams chasing them? Not so much.
He told reporters after the Chinese Grand Prix, “Talk to the Ferrari drivers; they’ll say it was a brilliant day. If you’re not winning, you just want to be able to race cleanly. Honestly, I didn’t see anything fake; every driver was fighting hard and fair. The midfield battles are fantastic; there’s a lot to like.”
And as for Verstappen’s comments? Wheatley gets it. When you’re struggling, it’s easy to point fingers.
FRED VASSEUR REJECTS TEAM ORDERS AS FERRARI DRIVERS DUEL CLEANLY IN SHANGHAI
Lewis Hamilton secures his first Ferrari podium at the Chinese GP as Fred Vasseur praises his drivers' clean racing.
Fred Vasseur felt pretty good about Ferrari’s performance in the Chinese Grand Prix, especially the way his drivers fought each other so cleanly, even though, as he admitted, it could’ve ended up looking like a disaster.
Ferrari started the race in third and fourth, and, right from the get-go, both drivers didn’t hold back. They actually got ahead of the Mercedes for a bit, but it didn't last; they ended up getting passed again. In those early laps, the two Ferraris were stuck between the Mercedes cars: Kimi Antonelli stretched his lead while George Russell stayed glued to their tails.
Lewis Hamilton led George Russell early on, and those two swapped places a bunch of times. Ferrari’s drivers did, too. There were moments when they went side by side, pushing the absolute limit, without ever making contact. Honestly, they kept at it almost the entire race. The last big move happened on Lap 40. Hamilton passed Leclerc and held onto third place, finally putting a red car on the podium for the first time this year.
Even with all that fighting, both Ferraris came home without a scratch. The drivers both said they had a blast; it was tough, hard racing, but always clean.
Vasseur, who runs the show at Ferrari, was quick to praise them. “Huge respect for both of them,” he told the press. “They’re total pros, and it just made sense to let them race. Sure, sometimes you risk looking stupid if things go wrong, but that’s a chance I’m willing to take.”
He was clear about his philosophy early in the season: you’ve got to let the drivers race. No team orders from the pit wall, just a chance to let them build up the team spirit by pushing each other. “This is how you make real progress,” Vasseur said. “As long as they race like they did today, I won’t freeze the positions. Even on the radio, they were telling us they were having fun.”
Once Hamilton got past Leclerc on Lap 40, the order was set. Hamilton got his first podium for Ferrari, which was huge even if his first season with them had been tough so far. Vasseur wasn’t worried, though.
“It’s so much easier the second year,” Vasseur explained. “He’s been part of the project for a while now; he started working with us as far back as mid-2025, doing simulator runs. He’s got more of a stake in this now compared to when he just turned up last January, and the car was already built. He knows everyone better, and working with the team is just smoother.”
But Vasseur knows Ferrari still has a big gap to Mercedes. The team has shown some solid pace in these first two races, but closing that gap will take time. “We’ve got to keep chipping away with those small gains, that’s how we’ll catch up.”
Right now, Ferrari’s battles out on track aren’t causing any problems. As the season goes on, though, Vasseur’s going to have to keep a lid on any tension because the championship’s heating up. Ferrari trails Mercedes by 31 points, and Leclerc and Hamilton are both chasing Russell for the drivers’ title, sitting 17 and 18 points behind.
If Ferrari’s going to have any shot at beating Mercedes, they’ll need to be on it every step of the way and stay ready to jump if their rivals make a mistake.