Oscar Piastri has the advantage. Max Verstappen is the one with the momentum. McLaren's automobile is faster than its performance indicates. So who is actually in charge of a Formula 1 title duel that is getting more and more interesting?

This is still very much Piastri's championship to lose, according to the fundamental statistics. Verstappen is 40 points ahead of him, and he could (almost) afford to lose to him in every sprint and grand prix before the season ends and still win the championship. That is not how he would like to win it.

In the meantime, Lando Norris has re-established his relationship with his teammate and repaired the majority of the harm caused by his retirement from the Dutch Grand Prix. Norris, who is only 14 points behind Piastri, is unquestionably involved. This complicates matters for McLaren, which must continue to deal with two drivers openly vying for a championship that Verstappen has a chance to win.

What McLaren is holding

The fact that McLaren drivers finished first and second in the championship shows that the team still has the power to control its own fate.

Andrea Stella, the team's chief, is eager to emphasise this point. Three races ago in Azerbaijan, Stella called Verstappen a real contender for the championship.

Stella remarked, "The threat for me is the same as there was in Baku," following Verstappen's victory at the US Grand Prix.

"I mean it when I say something. It is due to the experience, an awareness of the pattern, and an understanding of the circuits we would encounter starting in Baku.

"There is no mystery in my opinion, and we are aware that Max becomes a very serious contender for victory once he receives the necessary materials.

Neither our perception of the circumstance nor our actions are altered by it. All we need to do is maintain performing at our best and having enjoyable weekends. From this vantage point, if we consider a race like Baku, we did not execute a flawless race or maximise performance.

"There is no doubt that we have a great chance to win the drivers' championship this season; it is not in the hands of anybody else. That is the mindset we will have and the one we wish to have."

It is unquestionably the proper mindset to adopt. There were undoubtedly chances for McLaren to perform better in the US, Singapore, and Azerbaijan. Red Bull did not always outpace Piastri and Norris based only on speed. They have underperformed as a group due to a variety of situations, sometimes involving the driver, sometimes the team, and occasionally both.

However, there is room for improvement, which is the source of the assurance or hope that McLaren can still dominate the race for the championship. The distinction between that and what is actually occurring, however, is what matters.

The factor of form

The championship standings tell one story, but form tells another. Even though Verstappen still has a lot of work ahead of him, he has a significant advantage in this title fight because he has defeated Piastri by 64 points in the last four weekends.

Verstappen is now acknowledging that "for sure the probability is there"—a significant change from a few races ago, when he was not even considering the possibility of taking home the championship.

Verstappen responded, "No," when asked if he would have trusted someone who told him he would be in contention at this time, given that he was four races ago and 104 points down. I would have called him a fool.

"But with the automobile, we managed to find a good way. That is how easy it is.

McLaren has been struggling since Piastri and Norris are now fighting at two consecutive races, team orders continue to be a nuisance, and Red Bull's competitive comeback is now apparent. In championship run-ins, this is nothing new. Although McLaren would point out that it is merely "threatening" to do so—it has not yet, and it might not—it is threatening to ruin their attempt to win both championships.

The McLarens' really sticky patch—Norris's engine shutting down at Zandvoort, Piastri crashing out in Baku, and the two of them being eliminated in the same incident during the Austin sprint—has greatly aided Verstappen, who is currently on a roll and catching up. Because of this, Verstappen has amassed more points than the two McLarens combined since the summer break.

If Piastri's and Norris' seasons remain as resilient as they have been, Verstappen's streak will not simply continue; the massive points swings will continue. Additionally, he still requires assistance because time is running out.

There are 141 points up for grabs after two sprints and five grand prix. It will be very challenging for Verstappen to win every race, and even if he does, he will only be 37 points ahead of Piastri if Piastri finishes second in each of the five Grand Prix and the final two sprints. Verstappen is therefore not entirely in charge of his own fate.

However, the two McLarens taking points off one another might provide Verstappen with the assistance he still requires. The theoretical Verstappen gain increases by three points in each grand prix and by one additional point in each of the two sprints if Norris continues to outpace Piastri. Perhaps more if cars like Mercedes and Ferrari can swerve on some of the remaining tracks.

Verstappen's unrelenting victories and Piastri consistently finishing behind Norris until the conclusion of the season add up to a 54-point advantage. To put it another way, Verstappen would win.

Verstappen's main benefit

Since the two drivers are vying for their first world championship, McLaren is not considering the prospect of pressuring Norris to back Piastri's pursuit of the championship.

Stella stated, "We can also expand the gap to Max because there are five races and two sprints. "That is my perspective.

"Our car is getting fantastic tracks, but I believe there is more that we could have used from it and, to a lesser extent, the drivers themselves. They acknowledge that they could have performed better than in some of the earlier races.

We view the upcoming five races as chances to close the gap with Max, and mathematics will be the only factor that will influence the decision to call a driver. Until this is resolved mathematically, we will not close the door."

Stella is communicating effectively. The team and drivers are responsible for adhering to it. In contrast to McLaren, Verstappen and Red Bull have essentially been faultless since the summer break, as he suggests.

Additionally, keep in mind that Verstappen has endured the pressure cooker of the championship on multiple occasions. Red Bull has, too. Their competitors haven't: for both drivers, this is their first genuine opportunity, and for many at McLaren, it is the first drivers' title on the line.

Creaking in this situation is not a sign of weakness; rather, it is a reflection of the unfathomably intense truth that only a select few have truly experienced. Verstappen will be stronger as a result of his own shaky times in 2021.

This is perhaps his greatest benefit. Although Piastri and Norris (who at least have some experience from a failed attempt to get into title contention last year) are unknown at this level, we know what Verstappen can accomplish in such situations. Under the most strain are the candidates with the least amount of experience.

Who is in charge then? It is not Verstappen, but it relies on your priorities—points, momentum, psychology, or experience. Not quite yet. Even still, a lot of people might support him from this position.

Even if it is a new position for him, he is still the underdog and the outsider in the title run-in, which seems to bring out the best in him when he has a car like the Red Bull.

However, Verstappen would be far less unhappy to lose this championship than Piastri, and Norris would be. That further illustrates who should be or is in charge, notwithstanding Verstappen's obvious threat.